Every now and then in the discussions of AI/AGI and what not comes the central figure of that entire intellectual movement - Ray Kurzweil. And with him inevitably comes a form of an exponential chart like the one below: 

Basically the curve depicts Moore's law (which is not disputable), with a few additional labels suggesting that a particular computing performance is somehow equivalent to a processing power of brains of various animals. 

Superficially this looks fine, but of course the problem is hidden in how do we arrive with these equivalences? The typical answer to this question is that perhaps the labels should move around on the curve left or right but the sit there somewhere so it's fine, we might be off by a year or two, who cares. The relevance of whether or not it even makes sense to put brains along with computers on that chart typically isn't even questioned. 

Since I want to keep this post short, let's cut straight to the conclusion - this chart alone shows we are off by at least 23 years from original predictions. Why?

Let's take a closer look: Kurzweil claims we should be seeing insect brain capability in $1000 … Read more...